There is news that the current El Niño phase is weakening. While the weather will continue to be influenced by the current El Niño phase for at least several months the signs of the dissipation in warm sea surface temperatures through August are confirmed by the latest sea surface temperature seasonal outlook.
A wettter and warmer than normal February looks to be in store for all of the North Island and the northern third of the South Island. Such conditions can be linked to facial eczema outbreaks and increased risk of moulds and other diseases in viticulture and stone fruit orchards.
India went into the winter with a mild autumn and winter through December continued to be warmer than normal. The next two to three months are important for a numbver of reasons if temperatures continue to stay wamrrer than normal.
ENSO has been playing in New Zealand with some surprising rains and other areas drying out quickly. Winds have been up and we review the forecast for wind that can be seen by taking a trial subscription. Wind with temperature, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration forecast maps can form a powerful toolkit for understanding, on a monthly basis, how the natural environment may perform for your particular activity. That could be a farming practice or tourism vernture, even your holiday plans around the country.
The latest seasonal forecast issued by ExtendWeather of CLIMsystems Ltd based on state-of-the-art NOAA data points to a late spring for much of New Zealand. Winter has now taken hold in much of the country and it is expected to include below normal monthly average temperatures, punctuated by periods of extreme cold. Precipitation is likely to be below normal for many parts of the country over the winter and early spring period. This information can be considered by keen gardeners who are just now planning their hothouse seed plantings and the decision making on varieties and timing for transplant to their garden beds.
Initial Outlook for Waikato Winter and Summer Seasons: Slight shift in seasonal timing with cool and relatively dry winter, cool and average rainfall for the spring and delayed warming up in mid-summer with dry conditions in February but near normal in January and possibly slightly drier than normal March.