Is the Current El Niño Coming to an End?
There is mounting evidence that the current El Niño phase of the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is beginning to turn toward neutral conditions perhaps reaching that stage by August of this year. The Pacific Ocean is very important in the formation of global weather patterns and some will be happy to see the weakening of the current El Niño event while others wish it to hang around a little bit longer. Watch the movie below where we review the ExtendWeather forecast for sea surface temperatures in the Pacific from the end of 2015 and check the outlook against what actually happened. From February through to August 2016 we model the month by month transition outlook for sea surface temperatures in the El Niño engine room of the eastern tropical Pacific.
Some Wet and Others Dry
California is one part of the world that was hoping for a little more moisture from the current El Niño event. So far there have been some good rains in December and January but February has thus far been disappointing. Other parts of the world such as SE Asia, including the Philippines and parts of the Indonesian archipelago and Southern Africa have experienced an extended dry spell. This looks likely to continue for at least the next few months.
We encourage you to get a trial for the ExtendWeather seasonal forecast so you can keep on top of the changes in the seasonal forecast for specific regions and countries to get an idea of when rains may be returning to parched regions and also to monitor the global extreme temperature and precipitation forecasts. The ExtendWeather forecasts are updated three times a month providing high quality maps for easy interpretation of the outlook for your part of the world.