El Niño Advisory: El Niño conditions are present. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near-to-below average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere spring 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 summer.
Most landmasses will experience average wind conditions for the month. Winds will be greater than average in much of the South Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean around and to the west of New Zealand and in island SE Asia and Solomon Islands and the North Atlantic. Much of Australia, New Zealand and Asia will be near normal. Southern India and the sea to the west of India will be above normal.
Much of the northern hemisphere should be near normal or slightly below normal for solar radiation levels for the month. Australia and New Zealand will be slightly above normal. Much of South America will be below normal. The Middle East could be below normal as well as most of India and through SE Asia. The southern inter-tropical convergence zone of the Pacific Ocean will be well below normal.
Cool outbreaks are limited to parts of Australia and New Zealand. Meanwhile in the Pacific Ocean where the north Pacific through to the equatorial Pacific will be much warmer than normal as will be the eastern Pacific off of South America and the North Atlantic into Europe. While much of North Atlantic will be near normal the Atlantic to the east of the Caribbean will be warmer than normal and along the eastern seaboard of the USA and Canada and northern Europe. The east coast of China and areas of Southeast Asia will be warmer than normal as will be the Nusa Tengarra region of Indonesia.
Parts of the US Midwest and Rocky Mountains and South and interior parts of Argentina and Brazil near the Andes could have extreme precipitation as well as the Himalayas. Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Southern Malay Peninsula and mainland SE Asia could be unusually dry along with parts of the Amazon Basin and western USA and Canada.
The evolution of ENSO can be viewed through sea surface temperature anomaly maps. The Eastern Pacific is warmer than normal as is the Indian Ocean. View the next nine month forecast for anomalies and return to the forecast every ten days for updates.
The Southwest of the USA and Northeast of Mexico and the South China Sea region and part of the Philippines and western India and northeast India and large parts of southern part of South America and parts of Southern Africa and Central New Zealand are all showing positive rainfall anomalies. From Vanuatu northwest through Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian archipelago and also most of Central America and northern South America there is a considerable negative rainfall anomaly.
The warmer than normal areas include much of Alaska and the Northwest Territories across to Hudson’s Bay in Canada. Also the Maritime Provinces of Canada are likely to be warmer than normal. Coastal Argentina and southeast Brazil along with Peru and south through Chile should be warmer than normal along with most of Central and Western Europe and Australia and New Zealand. Much of the Western Pacific ocean area will be considerably warmer than normal as well as large areas in the north Atlantic. Much of northern Africa will be warmer than normal while Central Africa will be considerably cooler than normal. Southern Africa will also be warmer than normal. Much of Pakistan and north India across the Himalaya into Southern China will be warmer than normal all the way up to Siberia. The Southern Ocean and areas around Greenland will be well below normal along with the central part of the South Atlantic.