El Niño Advisory: El Niño conditions are present. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near-to-below average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere spring 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 summer.
Most landmasses will experience average wind conditions for the month. Winds will be less than average in much of the Central Pacific Ocean and North Indian Ocean into SE Asia. New Zealand will be stronger than normal as will the western Pacific Ocean.
Much of the northern hemisphere should be near normal or slightly below normal in the US Midwest for solar radiation levels for the month. Australia and New Zealand will be slightly to moderately above normal. The Middle East could be below normal. Most of India will be normal to above normal and this extends through SE Asia to Papua New Guinea. The southern inter-tropical convergence zone of the Pacific Ocean will be well below normal as will the north Pacific. The Southwest of the US is likely to be slightly below normal for the month.
Cool outbreaks are limited to parts of eastern Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and the southernmost part of South America and eastern Russia. Meanwhile in the Pacific Ocean where the north Pacific through to the equatorial Pacific will be much warmer than normal as will be the eastern Pacific off of South America and the North Atlantic into Europe. While much of North Atlantic will be near normal the Atlantic to the east of the Caribbean will be warmer than normal and along the eastern seaboard of the USA and Canada and northern Europe. Southeast Asia will be warmer than normal as will be the Nusa Tengarra region of Indonesia. Africa with experience usual low temperatures in the south and usual high temperatures in the north.
Parts of the US Midwest, Rocky Mountains and Sierra Mountains of California and interior parts of Argentina and Brazil near the Andes could have extreme precipitation as well as the Himalayas and West Africa. Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Southern Malay Peninsula and mainland SE Asia could be unusually dry along with parts of the Amazon Basin and Central America and parts of eastern India.
The evolution of ENSO can be viewed through sea surface temperature anomaly maps. The Eastern Pacific is warmer than normal as is the Indian Ocean. The eastern north Atlantic is also warmer than normal. The ocean surrounding New Zealand is cooler than normal.
The Southwest of the USA including California and Northwest of Mexico and across the Midwest of the USA and southern Brazil and Argentina, Sri Lanka all show positive rainfall anomalies as does much of Africa and western Australia and Bangladesh and western Myanmar. From Vanuatu northwest through Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian archipelago and also most of Central America and northern South America and the west coast and northern India there is a considerable negative rainfall anomaly.
The warmer than normal areas include much of California and Alaska and the Northwest Territories across to Hudson’s Bay in Canada. Also the Maritime Provinces of Canada are likely to be warmer than normal and the Gulf States of the USA. Central Argentina and western Brazil should be cooler than normal. Peru and south through Chile should be warmer than normal along with northern Australia and Central Asia and North Africa and the western half of India. Much of the Eastern Pacific ocean area will be considerably warmer than normal as well as large areas in the central Atlantic. Much of northern Africa will be warmer than normal while Central Africa will be considerably cooler than normal. Much of Pakistan and north India across the Himalaya into Southern China will be warmer than normal all the way up to Siberia. The Southern Ocean and areas around Greenland will be well below normal along with the cesntral part of the South Atlantic.