El Niño Advisory: El Niño conditions are present. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near-to-below average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere spring 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 summer.
Most landmasses will experience average wind conditions for the month. Winds will be less than average in much of the Central Pacific Ocean near the equator and stronger in SE Asia. New Zealand will be stronger than normal.
Much of the northern hemisphere should be near normal or slightly below normal for solar radiation levels for the month. Australia and New Zealand will be slightly below normal as well. Much of South America will be below normal. The Middle East could be below normal as well as most of India and through SE Asia. The southern inter-tropical convergence zone of the Pacific Ocean will be well below normal. Only the West Coast of Canada and Indonesia and eastern Africa and Europe are likely to be above normal for solar radiation.
Cool outbreaks are limited to parts of Australia and New Zealand and parts of the US Midwest and Caribbean. Meanwhile in the Pacific Ocean where the north Pacific through to the equatorial Pacific will be much warmer than normal as will be the eastern Pacific off of South America and the North Atlantic into Europe. While much of North Atlantic will be near normal the Atlantic to the east of the Caribbean will be warmer than normal and along the eastern seaboard of the USA and Canada and northern Europe. The east coast of China and areas of Southeast Asia will be warmer than normal as will be the Nusa Tengarra region of Indonesia. Africa with experience usual low temperatures in the south and usual high temperatures in the north.
Parts of the US Midwest, Rocky Mountains and Sierra Mountains of California and interior parts of Argentina and Brazil near the Andes could have extreme precipitation as well as the Himalayas, Gulf States and Northeast and West Africa. Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Southern Malay Peninsula and mainland SE Asia could be unusually dry along with parts of the Amazon Basin and western USA and Canada.
The evolution of ENSO can be viewed through sea surface temperature anomaly maps. The Eastern Pacific is warmer than normal as is the Indian Ocean. The eastern north Atlantic is also warmer than normal. The ocean surrounding New Zealand is cooler than normal.
The Southwest of the USA and Northeast of Mexico and the South China Sea region and part of the Philippines and western India and northeast India and Bangladesh and Myanmar large parts of southern part of Brazil are all showing positive rainfall anomalies. From Vanuatu northwest through Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian archipelago and also most of Central America and northern South America there is a considerable negative rainfall anomaly.
The warmer than normal areas include much of California and the western States of the USA, Alaska and the Northwest Territories across to Hudson’s Bay in Canada. Also the Maritime Provinces of Canada are likely to be warmer than normal. Central Argentina and western Brazil should be cooler than normal. Peru and south through Chile should be warmer than normal along with most of Central and Western Europe and South Africa and areas around the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. Much of the Eastern Pacific ocean area will be considerably warmer than normal as well as large areas in the central Atlantic. Much of northern Africa will be warmer than normal while Central Africa will be considerably cooler than normal Much of Pakistan and north India across the Himalaya into Southern China will be warmer than normal all the way up to Siberia. The Southern Ocean and areas around Greenland will be well below normal along with the central part of the South Atlantic.