A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.
Indicative of a strong El Niño, sea surface temperature (SSTs) anomalies were in excess of 2°C across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean during January. The Niño indices in the eastern Pacific declined, while Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 were nearly unchanged. The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific increased due to a downwelling Kelvin wave, but toward the end of the month weakened again in association with the eastward shift of below-average temperatures at depth in the central Pacific. Also, low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative but weakened relative to last month. Convection remained much enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific and suppressed over Indonesia. Collectively, these anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño.
Most models indicate that El Niño will weaken, with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer 2016. Thereafter, the chance of La Niña conditions increases into the fall. While there is both model and physical support for La Niña following strong El Niño, considerable uncertainty remains. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a possible transition to La Niña conditions during the fall.
ENSO events typically translate to drier than normal conditions in India.
The southern half of the subcontinent should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal while the area from Gujarat east to Delhi and across the Assam should be near normal to only slightly cooler than normal for the month. The far northwest should be slightly warmer than normal.
Much of the subcontinent should be slightly warmer than normal except for the very fareast that should be near normal.
Most of the subcontinent should be drier than normal however it is a dry month for most of the region. Only Gujarat, the southern quarter of country and the far northeast and very far northwest should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal.
Only Gujarat east to Madhya Pradesh and through to West Bengal should be wetter than normal but this is from a very dry historical base of only a few mm of rainfall historical in the month except for West Bengal that can have been 20 and 60 mm of rain in the month. The west coast through Karnataka and Kerela should be slightly wetter than normal. The rest of the country should be near normal to slightly drier than normal but from a very dry historical base.