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Sample Forecast for New Zealand

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Summary for New Zealand

In January and February ENSO-neutral conditions continued. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El NiƱo within the late Southern Hemisphere summer and early autumn, with ENSO-neutral slightly favored thereafter.

March Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be moderately warmer than normal with Northland and East Coast areas from East Cape South to the Southern Hawkes Bay on slightly warmer than normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be moderately warmer than normal with the Alps being considerably warmer than normal. South Canterbury which should be near normal.

March Precipitation

North Island: Parts of the North Waikato and Central Manawatu-Wanganui should see near normal precipitation. While large areas are likely to be slightly drier than the 30 year average with some parts of the volcanic plateau from Mount Taranaki eastward moderately drier than normal along with the far reaches of the East Cape.

South Island: The northern third of the island is forecast to be slightly to moderately drier than normal with the rest of the top half of the island normal or only slightly drier than normal. The southern half of the island is forecast to be near normal for precipitation with a trend in parts of Otago and Canterbury toward slightly drier than normal conditions.

March Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The lowland areas across the island are forecast to have moderate soil moisture deficits through the month. The higher elevations across the island are likely to be slightly above normal for soil moisture against the monthly average.

South Island: It is a west coast versus east coast story again across the island with the west coast having no soil moisture deficit through the month. Just about the entire eastern half of the island will experience considerable deficits except for Southland which has near normal deficits for the month. Central Otago, South Canterbury and North Canterbury will continue with considerable soil moisture deficits.

April Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal except for coastal areas south of East Cape.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be only slightly warmer than normal with a large parts of the island east of the divide moderately warmer than normal except of South Canterbury which should be near normal.

April Precipitation

North Island: Large areas of the Central and Southern parts of the island could be near normal. The eastern part of Northland and Hawkes Bay and East Cape could be slightly to moderately drier than normal.

South Island: Much of the Western half of the island could experience near normal precipitation while Otago and South Canterbury and North Canterbury could have slightly wetter conditions. Only isolate portions of Central Canterbury could experience slightly drier than normal conditions.

April Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island is either normal or above normal.

South Island: The West Coast remains in positive territory with most of the eastern half of the island being near normal except for a slight deficit in coastal Marlborough.

May Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal with the west coast of Northland near normal as well as South Hawkes Bay area.

South Island: Most of the island is expected to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal except for South Canterbury area which could be near normal to slightly cooler.

May Precipitation

North Island: Much of the island could be near normal to slightly wetter than normal with the eastern part of Northland and the Bay of Plenty and Coromandel slightly drier than normal.

South Island: The West Coast could range from near normal to slight drier than normal while the eastern part of the island slightly to moderately wetter than normal.

May Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island could be slightly to moderately positive with no deficits.

South Island: Almost the entire island lacks a deficit.