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Sample Forecast for New Zealand

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Summary for New Zealand

El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Southern Hemisphere winter 2015.

April Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be above normal except for the Southern Hawkes Bay which will be near normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be slightly to moderately warmer, especially the Alps, than normal except for South Canterbury which should be near normal.

April Precipitation

North Island: Much of the island is forecast to be drier than normal with Northland the Waikato and Central Plateau slightly to moderately to drier than normal. Only the Hawkes Bay and Gisborne areas are expected to be moderately drier than normal along with the East Cape and Bay of Plenty. Near normal precipitation is restricted to parts of southwest Waikato and Manawatu-Wanganui and Wellington areas.

South Island: Much of island could experience slightly to moderately drier conditions in the west. While much of the east will be near normal and eastern Otago and northern parts of Southland could be slightly above normal.

April Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island is either close to normal or in deficit especially the East Cape and Northern Hawkes Bay and Northland.

South Island: The West Coast dries out while the East Coast improves its deficits to be near normal.

May Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be moderately above normal except for a small portion of the Southern Hawkes Bay which will be near normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be slightly warmer than normal except for South Canterbury which is likely to be near normal. Portions of the Alps are moderately warmer than normal.

May Precipitation

North Island: Much of the island is forecast to be near normal except for the coastal portions of the Hawkes Bay and Eastern Gisborne.

South Island: Much of the island should be near normal with some eastern portion slightly wetter than normal.

May Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island is either normal or above normal especially to the north of Central Plateau.

South Island: The northern third of the West Coast remains in positive territory with the southern third showing a potential deficit. The Alps and East Coast are expected to be near normal for deficits.

June Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be moderately above normal except for a small portion of southeastern Manawatu-Wanganui which will be near normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be moderately warmer than normal except for South Canterbury which should be near normal. The Alps are expected to be considerably warmer than normal.

June Precipitation

North Island: Northland and East Cape and Hawkes Bay could be slightly wetter than normal. The Waikato and Bay of Plenty and parts of the uplands of the Hawkes Bay and Eastern Manawatu-Wanganui and Wellington region should be near normal. Large art of Central and Western Manawatu-Wanganui could be slightly drier than normal along with parts of Eastern Taranaki.

South Island: Much of the West Coast could be slightly drier than normal while much of the area east of the Alps could be near normal or slightly wetter than normal especially in Central and South Canterbury and northernmost portion of coastal Otago.

June Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island is either normal or above normal especially in Northland and East Caps through the Hawkes Bay.

South Island: The West Coast and Alps are showing a potential deficit. The East Coast is expected to be near normal to slightly positive for deficits.