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Sample Forecast for New Zealand

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Summary for New Zealand

In January 2014, atmospheric and oceanic indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean were at borderline El Niño thresholds. If El Niño were to emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event that ends in early Northern Hemisphere spring with a 50 to 60 percent chance of El Niño conditions in the next two months with neutral conditions returning thereafter.

February Temperature

North Island: The west and southern portion of the island is forecast to have temperatures slightly above the 30 year average for the month with the eastern quarter of the island being near normal or slightly cooler.

South Island: The northern half of the South Island is forecast to be normal to slightly to moderately warmer than the 30 year average as you move from west to east. The southern half of the island is expected to be normal to slightly cooler than normal in the west and slightly warmer than normal in the east.

February Precipitation

North Island: The month is likely to be slightly drier than the 30 year average with some isolated areas in Northland, Taranaki, East Cape and the southeast of the island moderately drier than normal.

South Island: Temperature pattern: The very northern part of the island is forecast to be moderately drier than normal with the rest of the top half of the island normal or only slightly drier than normal. The southern half of the island is forecast to be near normal for precipitation.

February Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The lowland areas across the Island are forecast to have moderate to considerable soil moisture deficits through the month. The higher elevations across the island are likely to be slightly above normal for soil moisture against the monthly average.

South Island: It is a west coast versus east coast story across the island with the west coast having no soil moisture deficit through the month. Just about the entire eastern half of the island will experience considerable deficits with Southland and the southern party of the Otago District with only slight soil moisture deficits.

March Temperature

North Island: The Waikato, Manawatu and parts of East Cape and and southern portion of the island is forecast to have temperatures slightly to, in some isolated parts, moderately above average for the month with the rest of the island being near normal.

South Island: The northern half of the South Island is forecast to be normal to slightly to moderately warmer than average as you move from west to east. The southern half of the island is expected to be normal other than the interior of Southland which is forecast to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

March Precipitation

North Island: The month is likely to be slightly drier than normal.

South Island: For the month the very northern part of the island is forecast to be moderately drier than normal with the rest of the top half of the island normal or only slightly drier than normal. The southern half of the island is forecast to be near normal for precipitation.

March Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The march outlook is for some lowland areas of the Island lacking a deficit while the Auckland, Central Waikato and Manawatu-Wanganui regions holding on to their moderate deficits. The upland areas of the island do not express deficits.

South Island: The West Coast continues to express a lack of deficit while in the east the areas of considerable deficit retract to closer to the coast but persist in Central Otago and South Canterbury and for Marlborough.

April Temperature

North Island: The Waikato, Manawatu is forecast to have temperatures either normal or only slightly above average to in some isolated parts moderately above the 30 year average.

South Island: The northern half of the South Island is forecast to be normal to slightly to moderately warmer than average as you move from west to east. The southern half of the island is expected to be normal other than the interior of Southland which is forecast to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

April Precipitation

North Island: The month is likely to be slightly drier than normal in the north and east with near normal precipitation in the west and central areas through the Waikato and Manawatu.

South Island: The very northern part of the island is forecast to be moderately drier than normal with the rest of the top half of the island slightly drier than normal. The southern most part of the southern half of the island is forecast to be near normal with the eastern portion slightly to moderately drier than normal.

April Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: Much of the island lacks a deficit with only marginal deficits persisting in the Auckland region and eastern portion of Waikato and Southern Hawkes Bay and the Wairapapa.

South Island: The West Coast continues to show no signs of a deficit while the east coast has only a slight deficit with isolated patches persisting in Marlborough and Central Otago and South Canterbury.