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Sample Forecast for New Zealand

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Summary for New Zealand

In January and February ENSO-neutral conditions continued. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El NiƱo within the late Southern Hemisphere summer and early autumn, with ENSO-neutral slightly favored thereafter.

March Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be near normal in temperature with the eastern portion of the Central Plateau and East Cape slightly cooler than normal. Only isolated areas in the vicinity of Wellington are expected to be warmer than normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be moderately warmer than normal. South Canterbury which should be near normal.

March Precipitation

North Island: Parts of the North Waikato and Central Manawatu-Wanganui should see near normal precipitation. Parts of the Central Plateau are likely to be slightly drier than the 30 year average. The eastern seaboard from Gisborne south is likely to be slightly wetter than normal with the Wairarapa near normal.

South Island: The northern third of the island is forecast to be slightly to moderately drier than normal with the rest of the top half of the island normal or only slightly drier than normal. The southern half of the island is forecast to be near normal for precipitation with a trend in parts of Otago and Canterbury toward slightly drier than normal conditions.

March Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The lowland areas across the island are forecast to have average moisture deficits through the month. The higher elevations across the island are likely to be slightly above normal for soil moisture against the monthly average. Only a small coastal portion of the Manawatu-Wanganui area could experience a slight deficit.

South Island: It is a west coast versus east coast story again across the island with the west coast having no soil moisture deficit through the month. Just about the entire eastern half of the island will experience moderate to considerable deficits except for Southland which has near normal deficits for the month. Central Otago, Canterbury and northeast Marlborough will continue with considerable soil moisture deficits.

April Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be normal except for the East Cape which could be slightly cooler than normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be only slightly warmer than normal with some parts of the island east of the divide moderately warmer than normal except of South Canterbury which should be near normal.

April Precipitation

North Island: Much of the island is forecast to be drier than normal with much of the east coastal zone moderately drier than normal. Only the Manawatu-Wanganui region is expected to experience normal precipitation.

South Island: Much of the Western half of the island could experience near normal conditions. While Canterbury and Marlborough could have slightly drier conditions.

April Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island is either normal or above normal especially through the mountain ranges.

South Island: The West Coast remains in positive territory with most of the eastern half of the island being near normal except for a slight deficit in coastal Marlborough.

May Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal with the west coast of Northland near normal as well as South Hawkes Bay area.

South Island: Most of the island is expected to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal with the Alps moderately warmer than normal and South Canterbury which could be near normal to slightly cooler.

May Precipitation

North Island: Much of the western two-thirds of the island could be near normal with the eastern third being slightly wetter than normal.

South Island: The West Coast could range from near normal to slight drier than normal with the Alps slightly to moderately drier than normal and the rest of the east near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

May Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island could be slightly to moderately positive with no deficits.

South Island: Almost the entire island lacks a deficit.