NOAA El Niño Advisory: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere summer 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.
During September, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Niño indices generally increased, although the far western Niño-4 index was nearly unchanged. Also, relative to last month, the strength of the positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased slightly in the central and eastern Pacific, but the largest departures remained above 6oC. The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to the east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values became more negative (stronger), consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.
All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late spring/early summer. The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere summer 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.
Near normal to slightly cooler over the entire region.
Slightly warmer than normal over the entire region.
Moderately warmer over the entire region.
Slightly drier across the northern half of the region and near normal in the southern half.
Slightly drier to near normal across the region.
Near normal across the region.
Near normal over the entire region.
Near normal to slightly warmer over the entire region.
Moderately warmer than normal over the entire region.
Near normal to slightly drier throughout the region.
Near normal to slightly drier throughout the region.
Near normal to slightly drier throughout the region.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly cooler.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal to near normal in the east.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the south.
Much of the region should be near normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
Much of the region should be slightly wetter than normal.
Slightly wetter in the east and near normal for the rest of the region.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be near normal to just slightly cooler than normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal but slightly to moderately wetter than normal in the southern half third.
Much of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal except the far east that should be near normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The entire region should be slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be near normal.
The western half of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal and the eastern half near normal to slightly wetter than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal in the east.
The entire region should be near normal except the far south should be slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly warmer than normal.
Most of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
Most of the region should be near normal.
Most of the region should be near normal.
The area should be near normal.
The area should be slightly warmer than normal.
The area should be slightly warmer than normal.
The area should be moderately drier than normal.
The area should be moderately drier than normal.
The area should be near normal.
The northern half of region should be near normal while the southern half could be up to 1.0 C warmer than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.
Nearly the entire region could be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
Nearly the entire region should be near normal.
Nearly the entire region should be near normal except the eastern third that should be wetter than normal.
Nearly the entire region should be near normal to slightly cooler than normal.
Nearly the entire region should be near normal.
Nearly the entire region could be up to 0.5 degrees C warmer than normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.
The entire region should be slightly drier than normal.
Much of the region should be normal to slightly warmer than normal in the Alps.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly to moderately warmer than normal in the Alps.
Much of the region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.
The region should be near normal to slightly and in some places moderately drier than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the northern plains to moderately drier than normal in the southern Alps.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the plains and slightly drier in the Alps.
Much of the region should be near normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.
Much of the region should be moderately warmer than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the easternmost portions.
Much of the region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.
Much of the eastern half of the region should be near normal and the western half slightly drier than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal except for Fiordland that could be slightly cooler than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal but slightly warmer than normal in the west.
Much of the region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.
Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the southeast.
Most of the western half of the region should be moderately drier than normal and the remainder slightly drier than normal.
Most of the western half of the region should be moderately drier than normal and the remainder slightly drier than normal.