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Sample Forecast for New Zealand

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Summary for New Zealand

In January and February ENSO-neutral conditions continued. Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across the western and central Pacific, while near average SSTs are evident in the eastern Pacific. There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El NiƱo within the late Southern Hemisphere summer and early autumn, with ENSO-neutral slightly favored thereafter.

March Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be above normal in temperature with the East Cape near normal and parts of Northland.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be moderately warmer than normal. South Canterbury which should be near normal.

March Precipitation

North Island: Parts of the North Waikato and Central Manawatu-Wanganui should see near normal precipitation. The eastern seaboard from Gisborne and south and the area from Auckland north is likely to be slightly wetter than normal with the Wairarapa and Wellington near normal to slightly drier than normal.

South Island: The northern third of the island is forecast to be slightly to moderately drier than normal with the rest of the top half of the island normal or only slightly drier than normal. The southern half of the island is forecast to be much drier than normal especially in South Canterbury and most of Otago and part of northern Southland. The West Coast is expected to be near normal.

March Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The lowland areas across the island are forecast to have average moisture deficits through the month. The higher elevations across the island are likely to be slightly above normal for soil moisture against the monthly average. Only a small coastal portion of the Manawatu-Wanganui area could experience a slight deficit along with Wellington and part of the Wairarapa.

South Island: It is a west coast versus east coast story again across the island with the west coast having no soil moisture deficit through the month. Just about the entire eastern half of the island will experience moderate to considerable deficits except for Southland which has near normal deficits for the month. Central Otago, Canterbury and northeast Marlborough will continue with considerable soil moisture deficits.

April Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be above normal except for the East Cape and Southern Hawkes Bay which will be near normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal except for South Canterbury which should be near normal.

April Precipitation

North Island: Much of the island is forecast to be drier than normal with much of the Waikato and Central Plateau moderately to slightly drier than normal. Only the Hawkes Bay and Gisborne areas are expected to experience near normal precipitation and a small area around Wellington.

South Island: Much of island could experience slightly to moderately drier conditions. While only a small portion of Central Canterbury could experience near normal precipitation.

April Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island is either normal or above normal especially through the mountain ranges.

South Island: The West Coast remains in positive territory with most of the eastern half of the island being near normal to a slight deficit in coastal Marlborough and South Canterbury and parts of Central Otago.

May Temperature

North Island: Most of the island is expected to be above normal except for a small portion of the Southern Hawkes Bay which will be near normal.

South Island: Large areas of the island are forecast to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal except for South Canterbury which should be near normal. The Alps are expected to be considerably warmer than normal.

May Precipitation

North Island: Much of the western two-thirds of the island could be slightly to moderately below normal Except for western Taranaki and Northland and Coromandel to East Cape which could be normal to slightly wetter than normal.

South Island: The West Coast could range from near normal to slight drier than normal with the Alps slightly to moderately drier than normal and the rest of the east near normal in the north and drier to moderately drier in Canterbury, Otago and eastern Southland.

May Potential Evapotranspiration Deficit

North Island: The entire island is either normal or above normal especially through the mountain ranges with a slight deficit in Manawatu-Wanganui and Wairarapa.

South Island: The West Coast remains in positive territory with most of the eastern half of the island being near normal to a slight deficit in coastal Canterbury and much of South Canterbury and large parts of Otago.