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Sample Forecast for New Zealand

Summary for New Zealand

NOAA El Niño Advisory: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere summer 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

During September, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Niño indices generally increased, although the far western Niño-4 index was nearly unchanged. Also, relative to last month, the strength of the positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased slightly in the central and eastern Pacific, but the largest departures remained above 6oC. The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to the east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values became more negative (stronger), consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late spring/early summer. The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Southern Hemisphere summer 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

Northland

Temperature

November

Near normal to slightly cooler over the entire region.

December

Slightly warmer than normal over the entire region.

January

Slightly warmer over the entire region.

Precipitation

November

Slightly drier across the northern half of the region and near normal in the southern half.

December

Slightly to moderately wetter than normal across the region.

January

Near normal across the region.

Auckland

Temperature

November

Near normal over the entire region.

December

Near normal to slightly warmer over the entire region.

January

Slightly warmer than normal over the entire region.

Precipitation

November

Near normal to slightly drier throughout the region.

December

Near normal to slightly wetter throughout the region.

January

Near normal to slightly wetter throughout the region.

Waikato

Temperature

November

The entire region should be near normal to slightly cooler.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

January

The entire region should be slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

The entire region should be slightly drier than normal in the north and near normal in the south.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

Bay of Plenty

Temperature

November

The entire region should be near normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

The entire region should be slightly drier than normal to near normal in the east.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal.

Gisborne

Temperature

November

The entire region should be near normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

The entire region should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.

December

The entire region should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.

Hawke’s Bay

Temperature

November

Much of the region should be near normal.

December

Much of the region should be near normal to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.

January

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.

December

Much of the region should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal.

January

Slightly drier in the east and near normal for the rest of the region.

Taranaki

Temperature

November

The entire region should be near normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

January

The entire region should be slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

The entire region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

Manawatu-Wanganui

Temperature

November

The entire region should be near normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal to just slightly cooler than normal.

January

The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

The entire region should be near normal.

December

Much of the region should be near normal except the far east that should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal.

January

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

Wellington

Temperature

November

The entire region should be near normal to up to 0.5 degrees C cooler than normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal.

January

The entire region should be slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

The entire region should be near normal.

December

The western half of the region should be near normal and the eastern half slightly to moderately wetter than normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal in the east.

Tasman

Temperature

November

The entire region should be near normal except the far south should be slightly warmer than normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

January

The entire region should be slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

Most of the region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.

December

Most of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

January

Most of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

Nelson

Temperature

November

The area should be near normal.

December

The area should be slightly warmer than normal.

January

The area should be slightly warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

Most of the region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.

December

Most of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

January

Most of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

Marlborough

Temperature

November

The northern half of region should be near normal while the southern half could be up to 1.0 C warmer than normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

January

The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

Nearly the entire region could be slightly to moderately drier than normal.

December

Nearly the entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

January

Nearly the entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

West Coast

Temperature

November

Nearly the entire region should be near normal to slightly cooler than normal.

December

Nearly the entire region should be near normal.

January

Nearly the region should be near normal to up to 0.5 degrees C warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

Nearly the entire region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

December

The entire region should be near normal.

January

The entire region should be near normal.

Canterbury

Temperature

November

Much of the region should be normal to slightly warmer than normal in the Alps.

December

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly to moderately warmer than normal in the Alps.

January

Much of the region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

The region should be near normal to slightly and in some places moderately drier than normal in the east.

December

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the far northern plains.

January

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

Otago

Temperature

November

Much of the region should be near normal.

December

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly warmer than normal.

January

Much of the region should be moderately warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly wetter in the west.

December

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly drier in places.

January

Much of the region should be near normal.

Southland

Temperature

November

Much of the region should be near normal except for Fiordland that could be slightly cooler than normal.

December

Much of the region should be near normal but slightly warmer than normal in the west.

January

Much of the region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

Precipitation

November

Much of the region should be slightly wetter than normal.

December

Much of the region should be near normal to slightly drier than normal.

January

Much of the region should be near normal.