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Sample Forecast for South East Asia

Summary for SE Asia

Synopsis: El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.

A strong El Niño continued during October as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Most Niño indices increased during the month, although the far eastern Niño-1+2 index decreased, accentuating the maximum in anomalous SST farther west. The subsurface temperature anomalies also increased in the central and eastern Pacific, in association with another downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative. These conditions are associated with enhanced convection over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and with suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Niño episode.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged, with the expectation that this El Niño could rank among the top three strongest episodes as measured by the 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region going back to 1950. El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.

December Temperature

The entire region should be moderately to extremely warmer than normal in the west to moderately warmer than normal in the Philippines and much of western Indonesia and Borneo with just slightly warmer than normal temperatures in western Indonesia. The Philippines should be moderately to extremely warmer than normal in Luzon and the western islands and slightly to moderately warmer than normal in the Visayas and Mindanao.

December Precipitation

Mainland SE Asia should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal in the north and west and far south of the Malay Peninsula while the remainder of the mainland should be slightly to moderately drier than normal. The entire Philippines should be slightly to moderately drier than normal while eastern Indonesia from Sumatra through Java and west and Central Borneo should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal along with Central Sulawesi while much of eastern Indonesia should be slightly to moderately drier than normal.

January Temperature

The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

January Precipitation

Much of Mainland SE Asia should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal except for Central Vietnam that should be slightly to moderately drier than normal. The Malay Peninsula should be slightly drier than normal along with north and central Sumatra. Borneo and southern Sumatra through almost the entire remainder of Indonesia to the east should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal. The Philippines and northern Borneo should remain slightly to moderately drier than normal.

February Temperature

The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal. Only northern Viet Nam should be extremely warmer than normal while north Papua should be near normal. Elsewhere temperatures should be slightly to moderately above normal for the month.

February Precipitation

Much of Mainland SE Asia should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal except for Central Vietnam that should be slightly to moderately drier than normal. The Malay Peninsula should be slightly drier than normal along with Sumatra, west and central Java and most of Borneo and much of Sulawesi. Eastern Indonesia will have some wet and dry areas and much of the Philippines remains slightly to moderately drier than normal except for northwest Luzon that should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.