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Sample Forecast for South East Asia

Summary for SE Asia

Synopsis: El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.

A strong El Niño continued during October as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. Most Niño indices increased during the month, although the far eastern Niño-1+2 index decreased, accentuating the maximum in anomalous SST farther west. The subsurface temperature anomalies also increased in the central and eastern Pacific, in association with another downwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over the western to east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained negative. These conditions are associated with enhanced convection over the central and eastern tropical Pacific and with suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong and mature El Niño episode.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, followed by weakening and a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late spring or early summer (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged, with the expectation that this El Niño could rank among the top three strongest episodes as measured by the 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region going back to 1950. El Niño will likely peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, with a transition to ENSO-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016.

December Temperature

The entire region should be moderately to extremely warmer than normal in the west to moderately warmer than normal in the Philippines and much of western Indonesia and Borneo with just slightly warmer than normal temperatures in western Indonesia. The Philippines should be moderately to extremely warmer than normal in Luzon and the western islands and slightly to moderately warmer than normal in the Visayas and Mindanao.

December Precipitation

Mainland SE Asia should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal with the Malay Peninsula down to Singapore slightly to moderately wetter than normal along with Sumatra and eastern Borneo. The rest of the archipelagic areas should be slightly to moderately drier than normal especially in the Philippines while small parts of Java and northern Papua should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal.

January Temperature

The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal.

January Precipitation

Much of Mainland SE Asia should be near normal to slightly wetter than normal except for Central Vietnam and southern Laos and northeast Cambodia and along the coast of Myanmar and southern Thailand. Malaysia and Singapore along with Sumatra and much of Indonesia and southern Borneo should be slightly to moderately wetter than normal while the Philippines and northern and eastern Borneo remains slightly to moderately dire than normal.