Trackers:
USA Wildfire Tracker
South Pacific Cyclone Tracker
Atlantic Hurricane Tracker

Sample Forecast for South Pacific

Summary for the South Pacific

Synopsis: A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.

A strong El Niño continued during December, with well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. All weekly Niño indices decreased slightly from the previous month. The subsurface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, while still well above average, weakened due to an upwelling equatorial oceanic Kelvin wave. Significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies continued over much of the tropical Pacific. During the last week, another westerly wind burst occurred in the east-central Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remained strongly negative. Also, convection remained strong over the central and east-central tropical Pacific, and suppressed over Indonesia. Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect the continuation of a strong El Niño episode.

Most models indicate that a strong El Niño will weaken with a transition to ENSO-neutral during the late autumn or early winter in the Southern hemisphere. The forecasters are in agreement with the model consensus, though the exact timing of the transition is difficult to predict. A strong El Niño is expected to gradually weaken through autumn 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer.

February Temperature

Parts of northern PNG should be near normal to slightly cooler than normal and the rest warmer than normal and the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia are expected to be slightly to moderately warmer than normal. Fiji should be near normal to slightly cooler than normal.

February Precipitation

The interior of PNG is near normal to wetter than normal while coastal areas are drier than normal in the north and across to New Britain. Normal and moderately above normal rainfall persists in the Solomon Islands with the rest of the region drier than normal. Nauru and Kiribati should be drier than normal and Tuvalu near normal. Cyclone seasonal has begun and while dryness may be forecast for parts of the region this can be interrupted by cyclonic activity.

March Temperature

The entire region should be slightly to moderately warmer than normal except for Fiji that should be near normal to slightly cooler than normal.

March Precipitation

The interior of PNG is drier normal while coastal areas are near normal in the north and across to New Britain. Normal and moderately above normal rainfall persists in the Solomon Islands with the rest of the region drier than normal. Nauru and northern Kiribati should be drier than normal and Tuvalu wetter than normal. Cyclone seasonal continues and while dryness may be forecast for parts of the region this can be interrupted by cyclonic activity and short duration high intensity rainfall.