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About Anomalies

This website displays seasonal climate anomalies from the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Predictions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USA)) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2). Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with four runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from an initial period of 10 days. The 1st ensemble (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the left days (about 10 days) of a month. The ensemble mean anomalies are calculated with respect to 1982-2010 model hindcast climatology. The anomalies represent the shift in the first moment of the predicted probability distribution. They are not a deterministic prediction of the actual values.